A CORRECT DIAGNOSIS, AN INCOMPLETE REMEDY: REVISITING “DELUSIONS OF SUCCESS” IN THE CONTEXT OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Abstract

This paper presents a critical review of the seminal article Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’ Decisions (2003), by Lovallo and Kahneman. The work consolidated the premise that large projects fail not only because of technical management shortcomings, but above all due to optimism bias and the planning fallacy. Although the authors’ diagnosis is robust, this review argues that the proposed solution, the use of statistical forecasts through Reference Class Forecasting, is insufficient for the dynamics of the contemporary economy. Drawing on the Cynefin Framework (Snowden) and on the theory of Agile Methodologies, we demonstrate that the authors’ solution fails in complex systems (as in the case of Spotify), where no historical basis exists to support forecasting. The paper concludes that modern managerial excellence does not lie in eliminating optimism through perfect plans, but in adopting adaptive architectures that mitigate the cost of error through short feedback cycles.