US-CHINA TRADE WAR AND THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET: IMPACTS ON GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY

Authors

  • Alexandre Malinoski Federal University of Sao Paulo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63026/acertte.v5i6.245

Keywords:

Trade war, Electric Vehicles, Sustainability, Technological innovation, Environmental policies

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impacts of the US-China trade war, initiated in 2017, on the development of the global electric vehicle market and its consequences for sustainability policies and technological innovation. From 2018, commercial tensions between the world's two largest economies created a new scenario of uncertainty (Trade Policy Uncertainty - TPU) that significantly affected investments in research and development in the automotive sector. Using documentary analysis and specialized literature review, including studies by Alessandria et al. (2025) and Zhang et al. (2025), this study demonstrates how protectionist policies compromised the development of green technologies essential for meeting climate goals established in the Paris Agreement. Results indicate that global value chain fragmentation increased production costs, delayed massive adoption of electric vehicles, and reduced investments in technological innovation. The article concludes that there is a structural tension between commercial protectionism objectives and global sustainability goals, requiring greater international coordination to face environmental challenges that transcend national borders.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

Alexandre Malinoski, Federal University of Sao Paulo

Graduated in Economic Sciences from the Escola Paulista de Política, Economia e Negócios, Federal University of São Paulo.

References

ALESSANDRIA, George; KHAN, Shafaat Yar; KHEDERLARIAN, Armen; RUHL, Kim J.; STEINBERG, Joseph B. Trade war and peace: U.S.-China trade and tariff risk from 2015–2050. Journal of International Economics, v. 155, p. 104066, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066

BBC NEWS. Trump accuses China of 'raping' US with unfair trade policy. 2 maio 2016. Disponível em: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36185012. Acesso em: 24 maio 2025.

BERMAN, Russell. Donald Trump Details Plan to Rewrite Global Trade Rules. Time, 28 jun. 2016. Disponível em: https://time.com/4385989/donald-trump-trade-china-speech/. Acesso em: 24 maio 2025.

FAN, Zhi-Ping; CAO, Yue; HUANG, Chun-Yong; LI, Yongli. Pricing strategies of domestic and imported electric vehicle manufacturers and the design of government subsidy and tariff policies. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, v. 143, p. 102093, 2020. DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2020.102093. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2020.102093

GOMES, Alexandre De Podestá; PAULS, Robert; TEN BRINK, Tobias. Industrial policy and the creation of the electric vehicles market in China: demand structure, sectoral complementarities and policy coordination. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 47, n. 1, p. 45–66, 2023. DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac056. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beac056

GORDON, James. How the U.S.-China trade war could derail the energy transition. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2025. Disponível em: https://carnegieendowment.org/2025/01/15/how-u.s.-china-trade-war-could-derail-energy-transition-pub-82845. Acesso em: 24 maio 2025.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (IEA). Global EV Outlook 2025: Expanding sales in diverse markets. Paris: IEA, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025. Acesso em: 24 maio 2025.

LUKE, Justin; RIBEIRO, Mateus Gheorghe de Castro; MARTIN, Sonia; BALOGUN, Emmanuel; CEZAR, Gustavo Vianna; PAVONE, Marco; RAJAGOPAL, Ram. Optimal coordination of electric buses and battery storage for achieving a 24/7 carbon-free electrified fleet. Applied Energy, v. 377, p. 124506, 2025. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124506. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124506

P. BOWN, Chad. Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: date guide. In: Realtime Economics. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2025. Disponível em: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/trumps-trade-war-timeline-20-date-guide. Acesso em: 09 jun. 2025.

ZHANG, Jian et al. Trade policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from the US-China trade war. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, v. 89, p. 102590, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102590. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102590

Published

2025-06-25

How to Cite

Malinoski, A. (2025). US-CHINA TRADE WAR AND THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET: IMPACTS ON GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY. ACERTTE SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL, 5(6), e56245. https://doi.org/10.63026/acertte.v5i6.245